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House of Mortgage

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Prices Fall In November

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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Prices Fall In NovemberU.S. home prices continued to fall in November according to S&P Case-Shiller’s month-to-month national and 20-city home price indices, but home price growth rates remained in positive territory year-over-year. The national home price index posted a  7.70 percent year-over-year home price growth rate as of November 2022.

20-city home price index posts 5th consecutive month-to-month decrease in November

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for November reported that the top three cities for home price growth were Miami, Florida with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 18.4 percent; Tampa, Florida followed with a  year-over-year home price growth rate of 16.9 percent. Atlanta Georgia reported a  12.7 percent growth rate for year-over-year home prices.

Home prices tracked in the 20-city home price index rose at a 6.8 percent year-over-year- pace in November as compared to year-over-year home price growth of 8.6 percent posted in October 2022. 19 of 20 cities included in the S&P Case-Shiller  20-city home price index reported lower home prices in November; only Detroit Michigan reported a gain in month-to-month home price growth.

FHFA: prices drop for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees government-sponsored mortgage enterprises  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices for homes financed or owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dropped by 0.10 percent month-to-month and rose by 8.2 percent year-over-year.

Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Ph.D. and Supervisory Economist in the FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, said:  “ U.S. house prices were largely unchanged in the last four months and remained near the peak levels reached over the summer of 2022. While higher mortgage rates have suppressed demand for homes, low inventories of houses for sale have helped maintain relatively flat house prices.”

Changes in seasonally adjusted home price changes ranged across the nine Census Divisions from -1.1 percent in the Pacific Division to +0.5 percent in the West North Central Division.  Year-over-year home price gains ranged from  +2.4 percent in the Pacific Division to +12.0 percent in the South Atlantic Division.”

Data included in the FHFA House Price Index are gathered from reports on single-family home prices ranging from the 1970s to the present and include single-family home transactions in all 50 states and more than 400 U.S. cities.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 30, 2023

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 30, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on new and pending home sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

New home sales increase in December

The Commerce Department reported new home sales rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 616,000 sales in December as compared to the expected pace of 615,000  new homes sales and November’s revised reading of 602,000 annual sales. December was the third consecutive month that the pace of new home sales rose, but new home sales remained well below the 1.04 million sales peak reported in August 2020.

Pending home sales rose by 2.5 percent in December, which outpaced expectations of a one percent decrease in pending sales and November’s seasonally-adjusted annual decrease of  -2.6 percent in pending home sales. New home sales are 26.6 percent lower than they were one year ago.

Month-to-month inflation slows in December

The Commerce Department reported that month-to-month inflation rose by 0.1 percent in  December, which matched November’s month-to-month reading. Core inflation rose by 0.1 percent in December to 0.3 percent and matched analyst expectations. Core inflation readings exclude volatile food and fuel sectors that comprise major expenses for many U.S. households.

Year-over-year inflation rose by 5.0 percent in December as compared to November’s pace of 5.5 percent. Core inflation rose  4.4 percent in December, which matched analyst expectations, but fell short of November’s year-over-year reading of 4.7 percent for core inflation.

Mortgage rates, initial jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by two basis points to 6.13 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 11 basis points to 5.17 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 186,000 filings as compared to the expected reading of 205,000 initial jobless claims and the previous week’s reading of 192,000 new jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.68 million ongoing claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.66 million continuing jobless claims filed.

Consumer sentiment strengthens in January

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of 64.9 in January, which surpassed the expected reading of 64.6 and December’s final index reading of 64.6. Readings over 50 indicate that a majority of consumers surveyed have a positive outlook on the economy. Falling gasoline prices contributed to an improved consumer outlook, but grocery prices remained high.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S. home prices, The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled press conference. Labor-sector reports on job growth and the national unemployment rate will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 23, 2023

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 23, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on U.S. housing markets, and Commerce Department data on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® reported sales of previously owned homes, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Homebuilder Sentiment Rises in December

The National Association of Home Builders reported increased homebuilder confidence in U.S. housing market conditions in December; this was the first time in 12 months that homebuilder confidence rose. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions rose by four points; builder confidence in home sales conditions over the next six months increased by two points. Builder confidence in prospective buyer traffic in new housing developments rose by three points.

Jerry Konter, a Georgia home builder and chairman of NAHB, said: “It appears that the low point for building sent in this cycle was registered in December, even as many builders continue to use a variety of incentives including price reductions to bolster sales.  The rise in builder sentiment also means that cycle lows for permits and starts are likely near, and a rebound for homebuilding could be underway later in 2023.”

Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist, predicted that single-family home building will increase as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability. Mr. Dietz said, “Improved housing affordability will increase housing demand as the nation grapples with a structural housing deficit of 1.5 million units.”

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 18 basis points to 6.15 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.28 percent and were 24 basis points lower on average.

First-time jobless claims fell to 190,000 claims filed as compared to expectations of 215,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 205,000 new jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims increased to 1.65 million claims filed compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.63 million continuing jobless claims.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new and pending home sales, consumer sentiment, and predictions on inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.